Terror in France: The weak point is Africa
In recent days France has been facing a wave of terrorism characterized by the activities of individuals or small groups, with a Muslim background and extreme ideological influence, operating out of revenge against what they see as a substantial attack on Muslim religious symbols combined with rhetorical attack by the presidential palace against the Muslim way of life.
It should be emphasized that France has previously experienced similar waves of terrorism on the same background. However, In recent months, President Macron seems to have abandoned political correctness and has openly and resolutely placed himself at the forefront of the fight against radical Islam. He is also not afraid to openly confront relatively moderate Muslim regimes, such as Turkey and Lebanon.
Although Macron — to his credit — seeks to adhere to the democratic and secular principles of his country, it seems that at least as far as his image as president and of France as a leading European power is concerned, it has been tainted — at least in public discourse — by an anti-Muslim agenda.
The terrorists of recent days have not operated in a vacuum. There is no doubt that they were influenced by the public mood, especially on social media, which in part is characterized by clear incitement against the president and elements (including civilians) suspected of harming the sanctuaries of Islam.
The recent terrorist attacks are indeed characterized by extraordinary cruelty. Decapitation is not a spectacle that Western European citizens and security officials are used to seeing in their backyards. However, these are still limited incidents, carried out by “amateurs” rather than by skilled terrorist infrastructures. This does not seem to be the real danger to French interests these days.
To understand where the greatest potential threat lies these days, one must look for the connection between established and skilled Islamic terrorist infrastructures, freedom of movement and lack of real security enforcement, and the availability of “soft targets” — branches of the French government, or civilian and commercial targets identified with France.
The connection between all these is most clearly found in Africa — and especially in the countries and regions that were in the distant past under colonial rule of France and in which French influence and involvement are evident even today.
In this context, we can mention mainly North Africa (with an emphasis on Algeria), the Sahel region (with an emphasis on Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso) and West Africa (with an emphasis on Mauritania, Senegal and the Ivory Coast). In all of these places operates Islamic terrorist infrastructures, affiliated with al-Qaeda, that have proven operational experience and involvement in sophisticated and effective terror attacks. If we add to this the weakness of the local security forces in effectively neutralize the activities of those infrastructures, and the availability of official sites of the French government, as well as civilian and commercial targets identified with France, then we get a real threat — from a combined attack on an embassy or other diplomatic mission of France, through the abduction of tourists, employees of infrastructure companies or French businessmen, and up to combined attacks against Western targets not necessarily identified with France, but the link can be made by the terrorists retrospectively (“we carried out the attack as a revenge against the West and France…” etc.).
Two conclusions the French decision-makers need to make these days — the first is tactical, and is to raise the level of threat in the above countries — including issuing travel warnings to their citizens staying there or planning to get there. The second is strategic -If France wants to remain relevant in the Muslim sphere, it must strengthen alliances with the moderates, without solid cooperation with the countries of origin, the French decision-makers shouldn’t be surprised that the terrorists repeatedly come to their backyard.
